BidRisk Analyzer turns any construction estimate into P10 / P50 / P90 confidence levels, shows which line items drive your risk, and tells you the price you need to hit your margin — in minutes, not a semester of @RISK training.
Every bid review asks the same thing: "How confident are we?" A deterministic total can’t answer it. A distribution can.
One number, gut-feel contingency, and a margin that evaporates when three trades overrun together. You find out at closeout.
A defensible range, the exact line items driving it, and a bid price with a stated probability of hitting your target margin. You find out before you sign.
No re-keying. Copy two columns from Excel — item names and costs — paste, and you’re in. Ranges come from one global setting or an AACE class, tweakable per line.
Two columns · paste · doneApply global ranges, then nudge individual trades. Group items that overrun together — same crew, same supplier, same commodity — so your P90 is honest.
−5% Min · +20% Max · ρ 0.60Run 10,000 iterations. Read P10/P50/P90, the S-curve, and your tornado of risk drivers. Enter a bid price and see your probability of clearing target GP.
P(GP ≥ 18%) = 74.2%Choose the distribution your risk review prefers. True Beta-PERT sampling, not an approximation.
No re-entering your bid. Copy your item names and costs, paste two columns, and start simulating. Minutes to your first run, not an afternoon of setup.
Gaussian-copula correlation so grouped trades overrun together — the difference between a toy and a defensible P90.
See which line items drive your cost uncertainty, ranked in dollars, top drivers flagged.
Pin as-bid vs. aggressive vs. conservative runs and overlay their S-curves on one chart.
Enter target GP and a proposed price — get the probability of achieving it, plus prices at 50/80/90% cost confidence.
Your logo, your company name, an engineering-grade report that drops straight into the bid package.
Report in USD, MXN, BRL, and 7 more currencies. Built for estimators across North, Central, and South America.
This is real output from the sample project — the same $12.4M bid from the live demo above. Below, a worked example of exactly what the tool reports: what the job could cost, and what to charge for it. New to this? Read our guide to setting bid contingency with Monte Carlo.
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo on your line items, with correlation groups so trades that overrun together are modeled that way — not independently.
Set your target gross profit, enter a proposed bid, and see the probability of clearing it — before you submit, not after you close out.
“I built this because I needed it. Twenty-five years running estimating teams taught me that the tools were either spreadsheets held together with macros, or enterprise software nobody had time to learn. BidRisk is the middle that was missing.”
No tiers, no feature gates, no upsells. Founding members get the entire tool — and keep this price for life, even as plans and prices change later.
Those are general-purpose simulation suites — powerful, expensive (roughly $2,000+/yr), and built for analysts. BidRisk does one job: construction bid risk. Paste an estimate, set ranges, read your P-levels and margin confidence. No training course, no Excel add-in fights, at a fraction of the price — with everything included in one plan. See the full comparison →
No. If you can say "this trade could come in 5% under or 25% over," you can use BidRisk. The tool explains correlation and distributions in plain estimator language, right where you need it.
Projects save as files you own and keep. We don’t sell, share, or mine your cost data — your numbers are your competitive advantage, and we treat them that way.
Any lump-sum or hard-bid work with line-item estimates: commercial buildings, industrial, civil, storage and terminal work, subcontractor packages. If you carry contingency, it fits.
That’s the point. Reports carry your logo and company name, formatted like an engineering deliverable — percentile table, S-curve, tornado, and stated assumptions per line item.
Everything included — future updates too — at $590/yr locked for life, free for 14 days. Your first risk report in under ten minutes.
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